Dec-19 is the only month which successfully recorded positive growth on export within 2019 and the first increase in exports since Oct-18. The data completed the overall 2019 trade performance where the deficit was due to the deficit from oil and gas (OG) sector.
Inflation in Dec-19 has made a new significant record as it was the lowest inflation since year 2000 in yearly basis.
The reason of the unchanged rate is because BI expects better macroeconomic indicators coming in 4Q19 ahead such as slight global economic growth recovery, stronger consumption approaching the year end, appreciation trend of the currency and the relatively low inflation.
The increase in imports of consumer goods surged approaching year-end holidays whereas exports shrunk for 13rd straight month since Nov-18.
Indonesia has passed many economic hurdles in 2019 but still managed to carry on. Some rosy aspects that may help the economy to get through, they are monetary sector, political stability, fiscal sector, and trade performance.
The core inflation came lower compared to the headline inflation as the inflation in Nov-19 was built from the food baskets that were more likely related to temporary factors that may reverse themselves later.
Bank Indonesia (BI) paused its BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate cut cycle after 4 consecutive months of rate cuts totaling 100 bps between July–October.
There were some adjustments on numbers of the accounts on 2Q19, such as on Financial account surplus remained significant and CAD was lower than our expectation at 2.9% of GDP.
Flipped back to a trade surplus in August. Trade surplus may lead BI to become more confident to continue loosening monetary policy coupled with stronger Rupiah in the last couple of days.
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